This phenomenological model estimates annual cases, DALYS, and deaths averted for mass oral cholera vaccination (OCV) campaigns under different geographic targeting strategies. Model inputs include baseline estimates of cholera mean annual incidence, meta-analysis estimates of cholera vaccine efficacy over time, and indirect vaccine protection estimates from re-analyses of vaccine trials in India and Bangladesh.
Lee, EC., Azman, AS., Kaminsky, J., Moore, S.M., McKay, H.S., Lessler, J. (2019) The projected impact of geographic targeting of oral cholera vaccination in sub-Saharan Africa: A modeling study PLOS Medicine 11 Dec 2019.
A deterministic, age-structured model of cholera transmission was fitted to the annual incidence rates of three African and two Asian countries using Markov Chain Monte Carlo. Three countries represent high, medium, and low-burden countries in Africa and similarly, two countries represent low and medium-burden countries in Asia (41 countries in total). Fitted models produce the estimates for the incidence of cholera and the impact of the vaccine (given to 1+ yo in 2020) over the period of 2020-2035 in a hypothetical cohort of 100,000 individuals. These estimates are multiplied with the size of population of countries to produce national-level estimates.