This is an age-structured model of the transmission dynamics of rubella in each country, for which the force of infection changes over time. Contact was described using a matrix of “who acquires infection from whom” with the parameters differing between the age groups <13 and ≥13 years. The contact parameters are calculated from the average force of infection in these age groups, calculated from age-stratified rubella seroprevalence data collected before the introduction of rubella vaccine. For countries for which no seroprevalence data were available, the contact parameters were calculated from seroprevalence data compiled through bootstrapping from the seroprevalence datasets available from the WHO.
Vynnycky E, Adams E.J, Cutts F.T, Reef S.E, Navar A.M, Simons E, Yoshida L, Brown D W .J, Jackson C, Strebel P.M, Dabbagh A.J Using Seroprevalence and Immunisation Coverage Data to Estimate the Global Burden of Congenital Rubella Syndrome, 1996-2010: A Systematic Review PLoS ONE11(3) Published March 10, 2016
Vynnycky E. Papadopoulos T, Angelis K. The impact of Measles-Rubella vaccination on the morbidity and mortality from Congenital Rubella Syndrome in 92 countries. Human Vaccines & Immunotherapeutics Volume 15, 2019 - Issue 2
This is an age-structured transmission model, with the population structured into five epidemiological stages (maternally immune, susceptible, infected, recovered, vaccinated) and 321 age classes. This model allows for direct estimation of the number of rubella infections and CRS cases, and the resulting numbers of deaths and DALYs lost. It provides the complexity needed to account for shifting demographics and varying vaccination scenarios, yet the flexibility to perform well using readily available data and parameters.