Vaccine impact models for
Closing date: 10 December 2018
Review outcomes: February 2019
Duration: 12 months in the first instance (with a strong possibility of renewal for the duration of the Consortium)
Funds available: up to $65,000
The Vaccine Impact Modelling Consortium was launched in November 2016 for a five-year period in response to an identified need by Gavi and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation to estimate global vaccine impact more consistently and reliably. The funders use the results to track progress, to project the likely future impact of vaccines in the current portfolio as well as to forecast the impact of potential future investments.
The Consortium coordinates the ongoing work of modelling groups from a range of research institutions and is led by a secretariat based at Imperial College London. We are looking for modelling groups interested in joining the Consortium and able to meet the output requirements as stipulated by the secretariat and the funders. The current portfolio of diseases includes: hepatitis B, Hib (Haemophilus influenzae type b), human papilloma virus (HPV), Japanese encephalitis, measles, meningitis A, pneumococcus, rubella, rotavirus, and yellow fever.
Through this open call, we are looking to recruit models for measles and meningitis A.
At a maximum, the Consortium can fund two modelling groups per disease area. Current Consortium models in the specified disease areas will be requested to re-apply along with the external groups.
We are looking for models that are already developed (rather than in an early stage of development) and are thus able to provide the outputs we require. As model inputs, we provide demographic data and estimates of vaccine coverage. We do not provide disease-specific data.
The primary objective of the Consortium is to model vaccine impact, and the modelling groups are responsible for calculating disease burden defined as: i) number of cases averted; ii) number of deaths averted; and iii) Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) averted.
Models selected to join the Consortium will need to provide estimates for a total set of 98 countries (or 26 countries for meningitis A). These include all Gavi-support eligible countries (historic and current) where the specific disease is endemic.
For meningitis, impact estimates of the pentavalent vaccine might also be of interest.
The secretariat provides the modellers with the relevant input data (demography and vaccination coverage). The modelling groups are required to submit the disease burden calculations for at least three different scenarios through the Consortium delivery platform. Hence, the outputs need to follow a specific format.
For the purposes of this RfP, we ask the applicants to submit a set of test estimates using the same format, but only for one country (Nigeria). Applicants will be required to submit central estimates and a limited set of stochastic estimates. More details can be found in the output specifications guidance (pdf).
If selected to join the Consortium, the model would be required to use the standardised demographic data (predominantly based on UNWPP data) for consistency and comparability purposes across the models. We ask the applicant groups to ideally use the standardised demographic data to ensure the model can produce good results already at the application stage. To access the demographic data, the upload templates, and to submit the burden estimates generated by your model, please contact [email protected] to request an account which will enable you to log-in to the delivery platform. Please provide your name, the organisation (if applicable), and the disease area. This will be available starting in late October 2018.
Note: If you prefer to use an alternative source for the demographic data, please provide these details in the accompanying model documentation.
The Consortium has developed a set of standards that all Consortium models are required to meet to successfully produce the desired outputs. The minimum standards are firm criteria for inclusion into the Consortium, whereas the desirable characteristics are aspirational. The review committee will evaluate all model-candidates against these criteria.
An anonymous review committee consisting of members internal and external to the Consortium will evaluate the submitted applications against the Consortium standards and based on the quality of the submitted ‘test’ estimates. The Consortium secretariat will inform the applicants about the decision outcomes via email.
How to submit your application:
To have your model considered by the VIMC secretariat, please email the following documents to [email protected] with a subject line “RfP 2018 – [your disease area] – [your group name]” by ** Monday 10 December 2018, 23:00 GMT**:
Cover sheet with basic model, author information, and overall budget indication.
Model documentation that will allow assessment against quality standards (e.g. a published paper, report, or custom-written documentation)
Draft burden estimates for Nigeria for specified disease area (Please submit directly via Consortium delivery platform using the standardised upload templates.)
Note: If your group is invited to join the Consortium, a detailed budget break-down will be requested in due course.