Meningitis

Cambridge meningitis model

Lead modeller: Caroline Trotter

Brief description of model:

This model began as an age-structured transmission dynamic model of group A Neisseria meningitidis (NmA) to investigate the impact of immunisation with MenAfriVac. Individuals may be susceptible, carriers, ill or recovered and in each of these states be vaccinated or unvaccinated, with vaccinated individuals having lower risks of infection (carriage acquisition) and disease. The model captures the key features of meningococcal epidemiology, including seasonality, age-specific carriage and periodic but irregular epidemics. Seasonality is implemented through seasonal forcing of the transmission rate, the extent of which varies stochastically every year. With the advent of new pentavalent vaccines in 2023, we extended the model to include groups CWYX.

Key publication(s):

Karachaliou A, Conlan AJ, Preziosi MP, Trotter CL. Modeling Long-term Vaccination Strategies With MenAfriVac in the African Meningitis Belt. Clin Infect Dis. 2015 Nov 15;61 Suppl 5(Suppl 5):S594-600. doi: 10.1093/cid/civ508. PMID: 26553693; PMCID: PMC4639487.

Karachaliou Prasinou A, Conlan AJK, Trotter CL. Understanding the Role of Duration of Vaccine Protection with MenAfriVac: Simulating Alternative Vaccination Strategies. Microorganisms. 2021 Feb 23;9(2):461. doi: 10.3390/microorganisms9020461. PMID: 33672209; PMCID: PMC7926406.

Model code (where available):

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CSRS meningitis model

Lead modeller: Kanny Diallo

Link to all modelling group members

Institution(s): Centre Suisse de Recherches Scientifiques (CSRS)

Brief description of model:

To be updated

Key publication(s):

Model code (where available):