Yellow Fever
UND yellow fever model
Lead modellers: Alex Perkins
Link to all modelling group members
Institution(s): University of Notre Dame (UND)
Brief description of model:
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The model represents zoonotic spillover with a Poisson process driven by spatially variable rates accounting for population, coverage, and environmental factors. It represents an urban transmission cycle with a branching process driven by spillover and with SIR dynamics in the event of a large outbreak. The model previously focused on South America, and has recently been extended to focus on Africa too.
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Figure 1.Modeling framework schematic.
Our modeling framework involves five sequential steps that result in a set of eight ensemble models of the force of infection (FOI) of yellow fever virus, and associated deaths, in each of 477 first administrative-level units (adm1s) across 34 countries in Africa. Each of these eight ensemble models corresponds to a different assumption about the interpretation of serological data in Step 1 (Table 1). Colors associated with the six steps are used in subsequent figures to refer to the step to which those results pertain.
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Key publication(s):
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Link to publicly available code (where available):
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Imperial yellow fever model
Lead modeller: Katy Gaythorpe
Link to all modelling group members
Institution(s): Imperial
Brief description of model:
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To model yellow fever (YF) outbreak occurrence and burden, we use a new stochastic, dynamic model of yellow fever virus (YFV) transmission which incorporates both sylvatic spillover and human-to-human (urban) transmission. The key parameters for this model are the force of infection for sylvatic spillover and the basic reproduction number of human-to-human transmission. These are calculated from environmental covariates (including non-human primate species richness, land cover and vector temperature suitability) using parameters estimated within a Bayesian framework from YF data from currently-affected regions of Africa and South America. This model has also been used to examine the risk of outbreak propagation in at-risk countries, as well as forming the basis for examining the impacts of climate change on YF risk..
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Map of median projected R0 across 1st-level sub-national administrative regions in selected African countries.
Key publication(s):
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Link to publicly available code (where available):
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FIOCRUZ yellow fever model
Lead modeller: Douglas Adriano Augusto
Link to all modelling group members
Institution(s): Oswaldo Cruz Foundation (FIOCRUZ)
Brief description of model:
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To be updated.
Key publication(s):
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Link to publicly available code (where available):
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