Consortium-wide publications

Second VIMC-wide publication - Toor, J. et al. (2021). Lives saved with vaccination for 10 pathogens across 112 countries in a pre-COVID-19 world. eLife, 10:e67635. doi:10.7554/eLife.67635.

First VIMC-wide publication - Li, X. et al. (2021). Estimating the health impact of vaccination against ten pathogens in 98 low-income and middle-income countries from 2000 to 2030: a modelling study. The Lancet, 397:398-408. doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(20)32657-X.

VIMC methodological paper - Echeverria. Londono, S., Li X., Toor, J., de Villiers, M.J., Nayagam, S., Hallett, T.B., Abbas, K., Jit, M., Klepac, P., Jean, K., Garske, T., Ferguson, N.M., Gaythorpe, K.A.M. (2021). How can the public health impact of vaccination be estimated?. BMC.

Publications on the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on vaccine preventable diseases

Toor, J., Li, X., Jit, M., Trotter, C.L., Echeverria-Londono, S., Hartner, A-M., Roth, J., Portnoy, A., Abbas, K., Ferguson, N.M., Gaythorpe, K.A.M. (2022). COVID-19 impact on routine immunisations for vaccine-preventable diseases: Projecting the effect of different routes to recovery. MedRxiv.

Gaythorpe, K.A.M., Abbas, K., Huber, J., Karachaliou, A., Thakkar, N., Woodruff, K., Li, X., Echeverria-Londono, S., VIMC Working Group on COVID-19 Impact on Vaccine Preventable Disease, Ferrari, M., Jackson, M.L., McCarthy, K., Perkins, T.A., Trotter, C., Jit, M. (2021). Impact of COVID-19-related disruptions to measles, meningococcal A, and yellow fever vaccination in 10 countries. eLife.

Abbas, K., Procter S. R., Flasche S. (2020). Routine vaccinations during a pandemic - benefit or risk?. Science Journal for Kids and Teens.

Abbas K, Procter SR, van Zandvoort K, Clark A, Funk S, Mengistu T, Hogan D, Dansereau E, Jit M, Flasche S. (2020). Routine childhood immunisation during the COVID-19 pandemic in Africa: a benefit-risk analysis of health benefits versus excess risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection. Lancet Global Health.


Lee EC, Chao DL, Lemaitre JC, Matrajt L, Pasetto D, Perez-Saez J. (2020). Achieving coordinated national immunity and cholera elimination in Haiti through vaccination: a modelling study. Lancet Global Health.

Lee, EC., Azman, AS., Kaminsky, J., Moore, S.M., McKay, H.S., Lessler, J. (2019). The projected impact of geographic targeting of oral cholera vaccination in sub-Saharan Africa: A modeling study. PLOS Medicine.

Hepatitis B

de Villiers MJ, Nayagam S, Hallett TB. (2021). The impact of the timely birth dose vaccine on the global elimination of hepatitis B. Nature Communications.

de Villiers MJ, Gamkrelidze I, Hallett TB, Nayagam S, Razavi H, Shearer DR. (2020). Modelling hepatitis B virus infection and impact of timely birth dose vaccine: A comparison of two simulation models. PLOS One.

Nayagam, S., Thursz, M., Sicuri, E., Conteh, L., Wiktor, S., Low-Beer, D. L., & Hallett, T. B. (2016). Requirements for global elimination of hepatitis B: a modelling study. Lancet Infectious Diseases, 16(12), 1399-1408.

Li, X., Wiesen, E., Diorditsa, S., Toda, K., Duong, T. H., Nguyen, L. H., Nguyen, T. H. (2016). Impact of Adverse Events Following Immunization in Viet Nam in 2013 on chronic hepatitis B infection. Vaccine, 34(6), 869-873. doi:10.1016/j.vaccine.2015.05.067.

Wiesen, E., Diorditsa, S., & Li, X. (2016). Progress towards hepatitis B prevention through vaccination in the Western Pacific, 1990-2014. Vaccine, 34(25), 2855-2862.

Goldstein, S. T., Zhou, F., Hadler, S. C., Bell, B. P., Mast, E. E., & Margolis, H. S. (2005). A mathematical model to estimate global hepatitis B disease burden and vaccination impact. Int J Epidemiol, 34(6), 1329-1339. doi:10.1093/ije/dyi206.

Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib), rotavirus and pneumococcal disease

Clark A, Tate J, Parashar U, Jit M, Hasso-Agopsowicz M, Henschke N, Lopman B, Van Zandvoort K, Pecenka C, Fine P, Sanderson C. (2019). Mortality reduction benefits and intussusception risks of rotavirus vaccination in 135 low-income and middle-income countries: a modelling analysis of current and alternative schedules. The Lancet Global Health.

Chen C, Cervero Liceras F, Flasche S, Sidharta S, Yoong J, Sundaram N, Jit M. (2019). Effect and cost-effectiveness of pneumococcal conjugate vaccination: a global modelling analysis. Lancet Glob Health 2019(7), e58-67.

Bourgeois, A. L., Wierzba, T. F., & Walker, R. I. (2016). Status of vaccine research and development for enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli. Vaccine, 34(26), 2880-2886. doi:10.1016/j.vaccine.2016.02.076.

Jit, M., Huyen, D. T. T., Friberg, I., Van Minh, H., Kiet, P. H. T., Walker, N., & Fox, K. (2015). Thirty years of vaccination in Vietnam: Impact and cost-effectiveness of the national Expanded Programme on Immunization. Vaccine, 33, A233-A239.

Clark, A., Jauregui, B., Griffiths, U., Janusz, C. B., Bolanos-Sierra, B., Hajjeh, R., Sanderson, C. (2013). TRIVAC decision-support model for evaluating the cost-effectiveness of Haemophilus influenzae type b, pneumococcal and rotavirus vaccination. Vaccine, 31 Suppl 3, C19-29. doi:10.1016/j.vaccine.2013.05.045.

Walker, N., Tam, Y., & Friberg, I. K. (2013). Overview of the Lives Saved Tool (LiST). BMC Public Health, 13 Suppl 3, S1. doi:10.1186/1471-2458-13-S3-S1.

Human papillomavirus (HPV)

Portnoy A, Abbas K, Sweet S, Kim JJ, Jit M. (2021). Projections of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination impact in Ethiopia, India, Nigeria and Pakistan: a comparative modelling study. BMJ Global Health.

Ochalek J, Abbas K, Claxton K, Jit M, Lomas J. (2021). Assessing the value of human papillomavirus vaccination in Gavi-eligible low-income and middle-income countries. BMJ Global Health.

Jit M, Prem K, Benard E, Brisson M. (2021). From cervical cancer elimination to eradication of vaccine-type human papillomavirus: Feasibility, public health strategies and cost-effectiveness. Science Direct.

Ochalek J, Abbas K, Claxton K, Jit M, Lomas J. (2020). Assessing the value of human papillomavirus vaccination in Gavi-eligible low-income and middle-income countries. BMJ Global Health.

Burger EA, Portnoy A, Campos NG, Sy S, Regan C, Kim JJ. (2020). Choosing the optimal HPV vaccine: The health impact and economic value of the nonavalent and bivalent HPV vaccines in 48 Gavi-eligible countries. International Journal of Cancer.

Portnoy A, Clark S, Ozawa S, Jit M. (2020). The impact of vaccination on gender equity: conceptual framework and human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine case study. International Journal for Equity in Health.

Brisson M, Kim J, Canfell K, Drolet M, Gingras G, Burger EA, et al. (2020). Impact of HPV Vaccination and cervical screening on cervical cancer elimination: a comparative modelling analysis in 78 low-income and lower-middle-income countries. The Lancet.

Abbas KM, van Zandvoort K, Brisson M, Jit M. (2020). Effects of updated demography, disability weights, and cervical cancer burden on estimates of human papillomavirus vaccination impact at the global, regional, and national levels: a PRIME modelling study. The Lancet Global Health.

Jit, M., Brisson, M., Portnoy, A., & Hutubessy, R. (2014). Cost-effectiveness of female human papillomavirus vaccination in 179 countries: a PRIME modelling study. Lancet Global Health, 2(7), E406-E414.

Kim, J. J., Sharma, M., O’Shea, M., Sweet, S., Diaz, M., Sancho-Garnier, H., & Seoud, M. (2013). Model-Based Impact and Cost-Effectiveness of Cervical Cancer Prevention in the Extended Middle East and North Africa (EMENA). Vaccine, 31, G65-G77.

Kim, S. Y., Sweet, S., Chang, J., & Goldie, S. J. (2011). Comparative evaluation of the potential impact of rotavirus versus HPV vaccination in GAVI-eligible countries: a preliminary analysis focused on the relative disease burden. BMC Infect Dis, 11, 174. doi:10.1186/1471-2334-11-174.

Goldie, S. J., O’Shea, M., Campos, N. G., Diaz, M., Sweet, S., & Kim, S. Y. (2008). Health and economic outcomes of HPV 16,18 vaccination in 72 GAVI-eligible countries. Vaccine, 26(32), 4080-4093.

Japanese encephalitis

Y.Cheng, N.Tran Minh, Q.Tran Minh, S.Khandelwal, H.E.Clapham (2022). Estimates of Japanese Encephalitis mortality and morbidity: A systematic review and modeling analysis. PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases.

Sean M. Moore (2021). The current burden of Japanese encephalitis and the estimated impacts of vaccination: Combining estimates of the spatial distribution and transmission intensity of a zoonotic pathogen. medRxiv.

Quan TM, Thao TTN, Duy NM, Nhat TM, Clapham H. (2020). Estimates of the global burden of Japanese encephalitis and the impact of vaccination from 2000-2015. Elife. 2020;9:e51027. doi:10.7554/eLife.51027..


Echeverria-Londono S, Hartner AM, Li X, Roth J, Portnoy A, Sbarra A.N, Abbas K, Ferrari M, Fu H, Jit M, Ferguson N.M, Gaythorpe K.A.M (2022). Exploring the subnational inequality and heterogeneity of the impact of routine measles immunisation in Africa. Vaccine.

Portnoy A, Hsieh Y, Abbas K, Klepac P, Santos H, Brenzel L, Jit M, Ferrari M (2022). Differential health impact of intervention programs for time-varying disease risk: a measles vaccination modeling study. BMC Medicine.

Fu H, Abbas K, Klepac P, Van Zandvoort K, Tanvir H, Portnoy A, Jit M. (2021). Effect of evidence updates on key determinants of measles vaccination impact: a DynaMICE modelling study in ten high-burden countries. BMC Medicine.

Portnoy A, Jit M, Helleringer S, Verguet S. (2020). Comparative Distributional Impact of Routine Immunization and Supplementary Immunization Activities in Delivery of Measles Vaccine in Low- and Middle-Income Countries. Value Health.

Utazi C, Wagai J, Pannell O, Cutts F, Rhoda D, Ferrari M, et al. (2020). Geospatial variation in measles vaccine coverage through routine and campaign strategies in Nigeria: Analysis of recent household surveys. Vaccine, 38(14), 3062-3071.

Hughes SL, Bolotin S, Khan S, Li Y,…, Jit M, et al. (2020). The effect of time since measles vaccination and age at first dose on measles vaccine effectiveness – A systematic review. Vaccine, 38(2020), 460-469.

Funk S, Knapp JK, Lebo E,…, Jit M, et al. (2019). Combining serological and contact data to derive target immunity levels for achieving and maintaining measles elimination. BMC Med 17, 180.

Verguet, S., Johri, M., Morris, S. K., Gauvreau, C. L., Jha, P., & Jit, M. (2015). Controlling measles using supplemental immunization activities: A mathematical model to inform optimal policy. Vaccine, 33(10), 1291-1296.

Chen, S., Fricks, J., & Ferrari, M. J. (2012). Tracking measles infection through non-linear state space models. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C-Applied Statistics, 61, 117-134.

Simons, E., Ferrari, M., Fricks, J., Wannemuehler, K., Anand, A., Burton, A., & Strebel, P. (2012). Assessment of the 2010 global measles mortality reduction goal: results from a model of surveillance data. Lancet, 379(9832), 2173-2178. doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(12)60522-4.

Meningitis A

Oumar, A. D., Isaie, M., Wilfried, B. B., Yameogo, I., Koussoube, D., Ouedraogo, R., Sangare, L., & Mbaeyi, S. A. (2018). Initial validation of a simulation model for estimating the impact of serogroup A Neisseria meningitidis vaccination in the African meningitis belt. PLoS One, 13(10), e0206117. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0206117.

Colombini, A., Trotter, C., Madrid, Y., Karachaliou, A., & Preziosi, M. P. (2015). Costs of Neisseria meningitidis Group A Disease and Economic Impact of Vaccination in Burkina Faso. Clin Infect Dis, 61 Suppl 5, S473-482. doi:10.1093/cid/civ600.

Karachaliou, A., Conlan, A. J., Preziosi, M. P., & Trotter, C. L. (2015). Modeling Long-term Vaccination Strategies With MenAfriVac in the African Meningitis Belt. Clin Infect Dis, 61 Suppl 5, S594-600. doi:10.1093/cid/civ508.

Tartof, S., Cohn, A., Tarbangdo, F., Djingarey, M. H., Messonnier, N., Clark, T. A., Jackson, M. L. (2013). Identifying optimal vaccination strategies for serogroup A Neisseria meningitidis conjugate vaccine in the African meningitis belt. PLoS One, 8(5), e63605. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0063605.


Papadopoulos T, Vynnycky E. (2022). Estimates of the basic reproduction number for rubella using seroprevalence data and indicator-based approaches. PLOS Comp Biol Press.

Motaze NV, Edoka I, Wiysonge CS, Metcalf CJE, Winter AK. (2016). Rubella Vaccine Introduction in the South African Public Vaccination Schedule: Mathematical Modelling for Decision Making. Vaccines.

Vynnycky, E., Adams, E. J., Cutts, F. T., Reef, S. E., Navar, A. M., Simons, E., Dabbagh, A. J. (2016). Using Seroprevalence and Immunisation Coverage Data to Estimate the Global Burden of Congenital Rubella Syndrome, 1996-2010: A Systematic Review.. PLoS One, 11(3).

Vynnycky, E., Yoshida, L. M., Huyen, D. T. T., Trung, N. D., Toda, K., Cuong, N. V., Hien, N. T. (2016). Modeling the impact of rubella vaccination in Vietnam. Human Vaccines & Immunotherapeutics, 12(1), 150-158.

Yellow Fever

Perkins, A., Huber, J. H., Tran, Q. M., Oidtman, R. J., Walters, M. K., Siraj, A. S., Moore, S. M. (2021). Burden is in the eye of the beholder: Sensitivity of yellow fever disease burden estimates to modeling assumptions. medRxiv.

Jean, K., Raad H., Gaythorpe, K., Hamlet, A., Mueller, J. E., Hogan, D., Mengistu, T., Whitaker, H. J., Hocine, M. N. (2020). Assessing the impact of preventive mass vaccination campaigns on yellow fever outbreaks in Africa : a population-level self-controlled case-series study. medRxiv.

Gaythorpe, K., Hamlet, A., Jean, K., Ramos, D. G., Cibrelus, L., Garske, T., Ferguson, N. (2020). The global burden of yellow fever. medRxiv.

Gaythorpe KAM, Hamlet A, Cibrelus L, Garske T, Ferguson, N. (2020). The effect of climate change on yellow fever disease burden in Africa. elife.

Jean K, Hamlet A, Benzler J, Cibrelus L, Gaythorpe K , Sall A, Ferguson N, Garske, T. (2020). Eliminating yellow fever epidemics in Africa: Vaccine demand forecast and impact modelling. PLOS Med.

Garske, T., Van Kerkhove, M. D., Yactayo, S., Ronveaux, O., Lewis, R. F., Staples, J. E., Comm, Y. F. E. (2014). Yellow Fever in Africa: Estimating the Burden of Disease and Impact of Mass Vaccination from Outbreak and Serological Data. PLoS Med, 11(5).

Jean, K., Donnelly, C. A., Ferguson, N. M., & Garske, T (2016). A Meta-Analysis of Serological Response Associated with Yellow Fever Vaccination. Am J Trop Med Hyg, 95(6), 1435-1439. doi:10.4269/ajtmh.16-0401.


Ali HA, Hartner AM, Echeverria-Londono S, Roth J, Li X, Abbas K, Portnoy A, Vynnycky E, Woodruff K, Ferguson NM, Toor J, Gaythorpe KAM (2022). Vaccine equity in low and middle-income countries: a systematic review and meta-analysis.. International Journal for Equity in Health.

Londono SE, Li X, Toor J, de Villiers MJ, Nayagam S, Hallett TB, Abbas K, Jit M, Klepac P, Jean K, Tini Garske T, Ferguson NM, Gaythorpe KAM. (2021). How can the public health impact of vaccination be estimated?. BMC Public Health.

Mayerová D, Abbas K. (2021). Childhood immunisation timeliness and vaccine confidence by health information source, maternal, socioeconomic, and geographic characteristics in Albania. BMC Public Health.

Abbas K, Mogasale V. (2021). When time-dependence in disease outcome risk is not captured by impact evaluation modeling studies: a measles vaccination case study. medRxiv.

Allison Portnoy, Yuli Lily Hsieh, Kaja Abbas, Petra Klepac, Heather Santos, Logan Brenzel, Mark Jit, Matthew Ferrari. (2021). Disruptions to childhood immunisation due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The Lancet.

Allan S, Adetifa I, Abbas K. (2021). Inequities in childhood immunisation coverage associated with socioeconomic, geographic, maternal, child, and place of birth characteristics in Kenya. BMC Infectious Diseases.

Oliveira Cata-Preta B, Melo Santos T, Mengistu T, Hogan D, Barros A, Gomes Victoria C. (2021). Zero-dose children and the immunisation cascade: Understanding immunisation pathways in low and middle-income countries. Science Direct.

Kaboré L, Meda B, Médah I, Shendale S, Nic Lochlainn L, Sanderson C, et al. (2020). Assessment of missed opportunities for vaccination (MOV) in Burkina Faso using the World Health Organization’s revised MOV strategy: Findings and strategic considerations to improve routine childhood immunization coverage. Science Direct.

Portnoy A, Vaughan K, Clarke-Deelder E, Suharlim C, Resch SC, Brenzel L, Menzies NA. (2020). Producing standardized country-level immunization delivery unit cost estimates. Pharmaco Economics.

Geweniger A, Abbas KM. (2020). Childhood vaccination coverage and equity impact in Ethiopia by socioeconomic, geographic, maternal, and child characteristics. Vaccine, (38), 3627–3638.