Consortium-wide publications

First VIMC-wide publication - Li, X. et al. (2021). Estimating the health impact of vaccination against ten pathogens in 98 low-income and middle-income countries from 2000 to 2030: a modelling study. The Lancet, 397:398-408. doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(20)32657-X.

VIMC methodological paper - Echeverria. Londono, S., Li X., Toor, J., de Villiers, M.J., Nayagam, S., Hallett, T.B., Abbas, K., Jit, M., Klepac, P., Jean, K., Garske, T., Ferguson, N.M., Gaythorpe, K.A.M. (2021). How can the public health impact of vaccination be estimated?. medRxiv.

Publications on the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on vaccine preventable diseases

Pre-print of VPD-COVID phase 1 paper - Gaythorpe, K., Abbas, K., Huber, J., Karachaliou, A., Thakkar, N., Woodruff, K., Li, X., Echeverria-Londono, S., VIMC Working Group on COVID-19 Impact on Vaccine Preventable Disease, Ferrari, M., Jackson, M.L., McCarthy, K., Perkins, A., Trotter, C., Jit, M. (2021). Health impact of routine immunisation service disruptions and mass vaccination campaign suspensions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic: Multimodel comparative analysis of disruption scenarios for measles, meningococcal A, and yellow fever vaccination in 10 low- and lower middle-income countries. medRxiv.

Abbas, K., Procter S. R., Flasche S. (2020). Routine vaccinations during a pandemic - benefit or risk?. Science Journal for Kids and Teens.

Abbas K, Procter SR, van Zandvoort K, Clark A, Funk S, Mengistu T, Hogan D, Dansereau E, Jit M, Flasche S. (2020). Routine childhood immunisation during the COVID-19 pandemic in Africa: a benefit-risk analysis of health benefits versus excess risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection. Lancet Global Health.


Lee EC, Chao DL, Lemaitre JC, Matrajt L, Pasetto D, Perez-Saez J. (2020). Achieving coordinated national immunity and cholera elimination in Haiti through vaccination: a modelling study. Lancet Global Health.

Lee, EC., Azman, AS., Kaminsky, J., Moore, S.M., McKay, H.S., Lessler, J. (2019). The projected impact of geographic targeting of oral cholera vaccination in sub-Saharan Africa: A modeling study. PLOS Medicine.

Hepatitis B

de Villiers MJ, Gamkrelidze I, Hallett TB, Nayagam S, Razavi H, Shearer DR. (2020). Modelling hepatitis B virus infection and impact of timely birth dose vaccine: A comparison of two simulation models. PLOS One.

Nayagam, S., Thursz, M., Sicuri, E., Conteh, L., Wiktor, S., Low-Beer, D. L., & Hallett, T. B. (2016). Requirements for global elimination of hepatitis B: a modelling study. Lancet Infectious Diseases, 16(12), 1399-1408.

Li, X., Wiesen, E., Diorditsa, S., Toda, K., Duong, T. H., Nguyen, L. H., Nguyen, T. H. (2016). Impact of Adverse Events Following Immunization in Viet Nam in 2013 on chronic hepatitis B infection. Vaccine, 34(6), 869-873. doi:10.1016/j.vaccine.2015.05.067.

Wiesen, E., Diorditsa, S., & Li, X. (2016). Progress towards hepatitis B prevention through vaccination in the Western Pacific, 1990-2014. Vaccine, 34(25), 2855-2862.

Goldstein, S. T., Zhou, F., Hadler, S. C., Bell, B. P., Mast, E. E., & Margolis, H. S. (2005). A mathematical model to estimate global hepatitis B disease burden and vaccination impact. Int J Epidemiol, 34(6), 1329-1339. doi:10.1093/ije/dyi206.

Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib), rotavirus and pneumococcal disease

Clark A, Tate J, Parashar U, Jit M, Hasso-Agopsowicz M, Henschke N, Lopman B, Van Zandvoort K, Pecenka C, Fine P, Sanderson C. (2019). Mortality reduction benefits and intussusception risks of rotavirus vaccination in 135 low-income and middle-income countries: a modelling analysis of current and alternative schedules. The Lancet Global Health.

Chen C, Cervero Liceras F, Flasche S, Sidharta S, Yoong J, Sundaram N, Jit M. (2019). Effect and cost-effectiveness of pneumococcal conjugate vaccination: a global modelling analysis. Lancet Glob Health 2019(7), e58-67.

Bourgeois, A. L., Wierzba, T. F., & Walker, R. I. (2016). Status of vaccine research and development for enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli. Vaccine, 34(26), 2880-2886. doi:10.1016/j.vaccine.2016.02.076.

Jit, M., Huyen, D. T. T., Friberg, I., Van Minh, H., Kiet, P. H. T., Walker, N., & Fox, K. (2015). Thirty years of vaccination in Vietnam: Impact and cost-effectiveness of the national Expanded Programme on Immunization. Vaccine, 33, A233-A239.

Clark, A., Jauregui, B., Griffiths, U., Janusz, C. B., Bolanos-Sierra, B., Hajjeh, R., Sanderson, C. (2013). TRIVAC decision-support model for evaluating the cost-effectiveness of Haemophilus influenzae type b, pneumococcal and rotavirus vaccination. Vaccine, 31 Suppl 3, C19-29. doi:10.1016/j.vaccine.2013.05.045.

Walker, N., Tam, Y., & Friberg, I. K. (2013). Overview of the Lives Saved Tool (LiST). BMC Public Health, 13 Suppl 3, S1. doi:10.1186/1471-2458-13-S3-S1.

Human papillomavirus (HPV)

Ochalek J, Abbas K, Claxton K, Jit M, Lomas J. (2020). Assessing the value of human papillomavirus vaccination in Gavi-eligible low-income and middle-income countries. BMJ Global Health.

Burger EA, Portnoy A, Campos NG, Sy S, Regan C, Kim JJ. (2020). Choosing the optimal HPV vaccine: The health impact and economic value of the nonavalent and bivalent HPV vaccines in 48 Gavi-eligible countries. International Journal of Cancer.

Portnoy A, Clark S, Ozawa S, Jit M. (2020). The impact of vaccination on gender equity: conceptual framework and human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine case study. International Journal for Equity in Health.

Portnoy A, Campos NG, Sy S, Burger EA, Cohen J, Regan C, Kim JJ. (2020). Impact and cost-effectiveness of human papillomavirus. Vaccination campaigns.

Brisson M, Kim J, Canfell K, Drolet M, Gingras G, Burger EA, et al. (2020). Impact of HPV Vaccination and cervical screening on cervical cancer elimination: a comparative modelling analysis in 78 low-income and lower-middle-income countries. The Lancet.

Abbas KM, van Zandvoort K, Brisson M, Jit M. (2020). Effects of updated demography, disability weights, and cervical cancer burden on estimates of human papillomavirus vaccination impact at the global, regional, and national levels: a PRIME modelling study. The Lancet Global Health.

Jit, M., Brisson, M., Portnoy, A., & Hutubessy, R. (2014). Cost-effectiveness of female human papillomavirus vaccination in 179 countries: a PRIME modelling study. Lancet Global Health, 2(7), E406-E414.

Kim, J. J., Sharma, M., O’Shea, M., Sweet, S., Diaz, M., Sancho-Garnier, H., & Seoud, M. (2013). Model-Based Impact and Cost-Effectiveness of Cervical Cancer Prevention in the Extended Middle East and North Africa (EMENA). Vaccine, 31, G65-G77.

Kim, S. Y., Sweet, S., Chang, J., & Goldie, S. J. (2011). Comparative evaluation of the potential impact of rotavirus versus HPV vaccination in GAVI-eligible countries: a preliminary analysis focused on the relative disease burden. BMC Infect Dis, 11, 174. doi:10.1186/1471-2334-11-174.

Goldie, S. J., O’Shea, M., Campos, N. G., Diaz, M., Sweet, S., & Kim, S. Y. (2008). Health and economic outcomes of HPV 16,18 vaccination in 72 GAVI-eligible countries. Vaccine, 26(32), 4080-4093.

Japanese encephalitis

Quan TM, Thao TTN, Duy NM, Nhat TM, Clapham H. (2020). Estimates of the global burden of Japanese encephalitis and the impact of vaccination from 2000-2015. Elife. 2020;9:e51027. doi:10.7554/eLife.51027..


Portnoy A, Jit M, Helleringer S, Verguet S. (2020). Comparative Distributional Impact of Routine Immunization and Supplementary Immunization Activities in Delivery of Measles Vaccine in Low- and Middle-Income Countries. Value Health.

Utazi C, Wagai J, Pannell O, Cutts F, Rhoda D, Ferrari M, et al. (2020). Geospatial variation in measles vaccine coverage through routine and campaign strategies in Nigeria: Analysis of recent household surveys. Vaccine, 38(14), 3062-3071.

Hughes SL, Bolotin S, Khan S, Li Y,…, Jit M, et al. (2020). The effect of time since measles vaccination and age at first dose on measles vaccine effectiveness – A systematic review. Vaccine, 38(2020), 460-469.

Funk S, Knapp JK, Lebo E,…, Jit M, et al. (2019). Combining serological and contact data to derive target immunity levels for achieving and maintaining measles elimination. BMC Med 17, 180.

Verguet, S., Johri, M., Morris, S. K., Gauvreau, C. L., Jha, P., & Jit, M. (2015). Controlling measles using supplemental immunization activities: A mathematical model to inform optimal policy. Vaccine, 33(10), 1291-1296.

Chen, S., Fricks, J., & Ferrari, M. J. (2012). Tracking measles infection through non-linear state space models. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C-Applied Statistics, 61, 117-134.

Simons, E., Ferrari, M., Fricks, J., Wannemuehler, K., Anand, A., Burton, A., & Strebel, P. (2012). Assessment of the 2010 global measles mortality reduction goal: results from a model of surveillance data. Lancet, 379(9832), 2173-2178. doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(12)60522-4.

Meningitis A

Oumar, A. D., Isaie, M., Wilfried, B. B., Yameogo, I., Koussoube, D., Ouedraogo, R., Sangare, L., & Mbaeyi, S. A. (2018). Initial validation of a simulation model for estimating the impact of serogroup A Neisseria meningitidis vaccination in the African meningitis belt. PLoS One, 13(10), e0206117. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0206117.

Colombini, A., Trotter, C., Madrid, Y., Karachaliou, A., & Preziosi, M. P. (2015). Costs of Neisseria meningitidis Group A Disease and Economic Impact of Vaccination in Burkina Faso. Clin Infect Dis, 61 Suppl 5, S473-482. doi:10.1093/cid/civ600.

Karachaliou, A., Conlan, A. J., Preziosi, M. P., & Trotter, C. L. (2015). Modeling Long-term Vaccination Strategies With MenAfriVac in the African Meningitis Belt. Clin Infect Dis, 61 Suppl 5, S594-600. doi:10.1093/cid/civ508.

Tartof, S., Cohn, A., Tarbangdo, F., Djingarey, M. H., Messonnier, N., Clark, T. A., Jackson, M. L. (2013). Identifying optimal vaccination strategies for serogroup A Neisseria meningitidis conjugate vaccine in the African meningitis belt. PLoS One, 8(5), e63605. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0063605.


Motaze NV, Edoka I, Wiysonge CS, Metcalf CJE, Winter AK. (2016). Rubella Vaccine Introduction in the South African Public Vaccination Schedule: Mathematical Modelling for Decision Making. Vaccines.

Vynnycky, E., Adams, E. J., Cutts, F. T., Reef, S. E., Navar, A. M., Simons, E., Dabbagh, A. J. (2016). Using Seroprevalence and Immunisation Coverage Data to Estimate the Global Burden of Congenital Rubella Syndrome, 1996-2010: A Systematic Review.. PLoS One, 11(3).

Vynnycky, E., Yoshida, L. M., Huyen, D. T. T., Trung, N. D., Toda, K., Cuong, N. V., Hien, N. T. (2016). Modeling the impact of rubella vaccination in Vietnam. Human Vaccines & Immunotherapeutics, 12(1), 150-158.

Yellow Fever

Perkins, A., Huber, J. H., Tran, Q. M., Oidtman, R. J., Walters, M. K., Siraj, A. S., Moore, S. M. (2021). Burden is in the eye of the beholder: Sensitivity of yellow fever disease burden estimates to modeling assumptions. medRxiv.

Jean, K., Raad H., Gaythorpe, K., Hamlet, A., Mueller, J. E., Hogan, D., Mengistu, T., Whitaker, H. J., Hocine, M. N. (2020). Assessing the impact of preventive mass vaccination campaigns on yellow fever outbreaks in Africa : a population-level self-controlled case-series study. medRxiv.

Gaythorpe, K., Hamlet, A., Jean, K., Ramos, D. G., Cibrelus, L., Garske, T., Ferguson, N. (2020). The global burden of yellow fever. medRxiv.

Gaythorpe KAM, Hamlet A, Cibrelus L, Garske T, Ferguson, N. (2020). The effect of climate change on yellow fever disease burden in Africa. elife.

Jean K, Hamlet A, Benzler J, Cibrelus L, Gaythorpe K , Sall A, Ferguson N, Garske, T. (2020). Eliminating yellow fever epidemics in Africa: Vaccine demand forecast and impact modelling. PLOS Med.

Garske, T., Van Kerkhove, M. D., Yactayo, S., Ronveaux, O., Lewis, R. F., Staples, J. E., Comm, Y. F. E. (2014). Yellow Fever in Africa: Estimating the Burden of Disease and Impact of Mass Vaccination from Outbreak and Serological Data. PLoS Med, 11(5).

Jean, K., Donnelly, C. A., Ferguson, N. M., & Garske, T (2016). A Meta-Analysis of Serological Response Associated with Yellow Fever Vaccination. Am J Trop Med Hyg, 95(6), 1435-1439. doi:10.4269/ajtmh.16-0401.


Geweniger A, Abbas KM. (2020). Childhood vaccination coverage and equity impact in Ethiopia by socioeconomic, geographic, maternal, and child characteristics. Vaccine, (38), 3627–3638.